Column: Analyzing Billy Beane
by Dan Passner
Sports | 9/2/03
Posted online at 12:25 AM EST on 9/2/03
This article is dedicated to the late great Wesley Willis, who died last week at the age of 40. He was one of the few unique musicians in recent memory, and his music will resonate with future generations. Consider this gem from the song "Arnold Schwarzenegger:" "I love your movies/I love you too/You are the best man that I have ever liked/You are my rich man/You are my millionaire." Shine on Wesley Willis, you crazy, crazy diamond.
In actuality, the Willis song segues nicely into the topic that I wish to discuss in this article, that of Michael Lewis' dynamic book, "Moneyball." The book took the market by storm, making the New York Times best-seller list and garnering rave reviews. It has often been said that the star of "Moneyball" is Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland Athletics. Though the book is supposedly a work of nonfiction, Lewis has created a fictional character named "Billy Beane" who happens to bear little resemblance to the actual Billy Beane.
Lewis' Beane is a baseball genius. He can turn a community college into Harvard, a Grandma Moses into a Monet and Rosie O'Donnell into Jenna Jameson.
He talks of a man who, with the assistance of underling Paul DePodesta, creates numerous tools that analyze performance in ways that give him an unbelievable edge in dollar-for-dollar talent acquisition. Lewis talks of Beane's calculation which estimates how a single additional point of on-base percentage is three times more valuable than a point of slugging percentage.
Lewis talks of a Billy Beane who can fleece any GM, turning a Pinto into a Bentley. Lewis talks of a Beane who, despite a shoestring budget, was able to snag 13 of the 20 players he most wanted in the 2002 amateur draft. The truth is a lot less glamorous than Lewis' fawning suggestions.
Billy Beane is not a statistical innovator. Paul DePodesta is not some magical number cruncher who enters data into a computer and comes out with baseball gold. The statistics extolled in "Moneyball" as being revolutionary are well behind the curve. Any casual, intelligent fan who strolls over to baseballprimer.com or baseballprospectus.com can see that what Lewis has Beane touting as genius is already passé.
In actuality, the Willis song segues nicely into the topic that I wish to discuss in this article, that of Michael Lewis' dynamic book, "Moneyball." The book took the market by storm, making the New York Times best-seller list and garnering rave reviews. It has often been said that the star of "Moneyball" is Billy Beane, the General Manager of the Oakland Athletics. Though the book is supposedly a work of nonfiction, Lewis has created a fictional character named "Billy Beane" who happens to bear little resemblance to the actual Billy Beane.
Lewis' Beane is a baseball genius. He can turn a community college into Harvard, a Grandma Moses into a Monet and Rosie O'Donnell into Jenna Jameson.
He talks of a man who, with the assistance of underling Paul DePodesta, creates numerous tools that analyze performance in ways that give him an unbelievable edge in dollar-for-dollar talent acquisition. Lewis talks of Beane's calculation which estimates how a single additional point of on-base percentage is three times more valuable than a point of slugging percentage.
Lewis talks of a Billy Beane who can fleece any GM, turning a Pinto into a Bentley. Lewis talks of a Beane who, despite a shoestring budget, was able to snag 13 of the 20 players he most wanted in the 2002 amateur draft. The truth is a lot less glamorous than Lewis' fawning suggestions.
Billy Beane is not a statistical innovator. Paul DePodesta is not some magical number cruncher who enters data into a computer and comes out with baseball gold. The statistics extolled in "Moneyball" as being revolutionary are well behind the curve. Any casual, intelligent fan who strolls over to baseballprimer.com or baseballprospectus.com can see that what Lewis has Beane touting as genius is already passé.
